Stock Market

The hoopla falls short of that which surrounded birthdays #3-#7; based on the flood of assets into passive stock funds, it appears complacency has set in. Current bull close to becoming longest in history.

A look at the potential upside for the median S&P 500 stock, based on the theory that each of four valuation ratios reaches its individual all-time high set during the last phase of the 1990s’ market mania.

Over the last 70 years, stocks have made no cumulative progress when Producer Price Inflation runs above 4%. Returns have been average when PPI inflation runs between 2% and 4%—where it is today.

For managers who must remain fully invested in equities (or “paid to play,” as we’ve often called it), the level of inflation might prove a less important consideration than its character.