Stock Market

Stock Market

  • Stock Market

    What A Difference A Year Makes

    June 07, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Early this year we chatted with the retired founder of a Midwest investment management and research firm. After living and breathing markets for six decades, this bearded and iconoclastic character had avoided financial publications, Bloomberg, CNBC, and the like for more than a year.

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  • Stock Market

    Is The Bull Just Napping?

    June 07, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Old age has certainly put no limitations on the bull’s exploits, so we should be cautious in reading too much into its meandering recovery path. However, it’s possible that action since the February low is not a recovery process but rather a countertrend bounce within a larger downtrend.

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  • Stock Market

    Is Market Breadth Misleading?

    June 07, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The stock market has narrowed, but not in the way we envisioned—nor in a way that’s consistent with most historical bull market tops. Small Caps and market breadth measures are traditionally the first to wilt when monetary tightening begins to hit the stock market. Instead, they are the leaders.

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  • Stock Market

    What The Curve Does And Doesn’t Tell Us

    June 07, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate has narrowed sharply in the last year but remains a long way (~110 basis points) from inverting.

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  • Stock Market

    A Smart-Money Split

    June 07, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Supply/Demand category carries the smallest weighting among the five factor groupings in the Major Trend Index, and this weighting is further diminished by the fact that its components rarely line up in a way which loudly proclaims that an  “accumulation” or a “distribution” phase is underway. Today is just another of those typically inconclusive times.

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  • Stock Market

    Analysts, Summon Your Inner-Angler!

    June 07, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Quantitative investment firms are increasingly touting the cross-disciplinary backgrounds of their research staffs, with prior high-level experience in areas such as medical research and engineering not uncommon.

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  • Stock Market

    Shun ETFs With Largest Inflows

    June 07, 2018 BY Jun Zhu

    We found that ETFs with the largest one-month, two-month, and three-month fund inflows underperformed going forward. When further broken down by sub-asset class strategies, this pattern is pronounced among equity ETFs, while fixed income ETFs do not appear to be affected by fund flows.

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  • Stock Market

    The Market Told You So

    May 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    First quarter profits have been terrific, and this quarter’s will be too. Enjoy them, but remember that the market “paid” you for them many months ago. Don’t submit another invoice…

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  • Stock Market

    The “Correction” Clock Is Ticking

    May 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    2018’s S&P 500 setback qualifies as an “intermediate” correction. Historically, the duration of intermediate corrections is brief, and recovery time to move back above prior highs has also been brief. This year’s retracement route is already among the most meandering of all recovery paths since 1950.

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  • Stock Market

    Cashing In On The LEI?

    May 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The consensus view is that the stock market will be fine as long as there’s no recession in sight.The same LEI that has displayed a fine GDP forecasting record has shown essentially no relationship with S&P 500 forward twelve-month performance. In fact the regression line shows a slight negative slope!

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