Estimating the Downside - August 2017

August 05, 2017 BY Phil Segner <   >

Based on 1957-to-date valuation metrics, the S&P 500 potential downside to median levels is -25%. Secular bear markets, however, fall well below median levels; based on a decline to the 25th percentile of 1957-to-date distributions, the S&P 500 would have to fall 36% to 1,591 (not a prediction).

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