Amidst the Energy carnage, the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group is the exception, having returned over 7% YTD. Refiners are able to perform well in a variety of oil price scenarios—and tend to thrive in a falling crude oil price environment.
While this Consumer Discretionary group has not experienced six-plus-years of market outperformance, we think it may be poised for a late-game bounce. An overall lack of housing options may be just what this industry needs to give it a long-awaited boost.
The last time this group held an Attractive rating for an extended period of time was 2000. Based on the group’s extended underperformance, induced by repercussions of the global financial crisis, we think it may finally be poised for a turnaround.
While we view the industry group selection as the most important decision, looking at the sector level rankings also helps us identify broad trends. Here we highlight the top two rated sectors, currently, which also represent a combined >40% weight in our Select Industries Portfolio.
Until now, this group has been out of favor per our quantitative disciplines for the entirety of the bull market, making its newfound attractiveness particularly interesting. Even an 80% return in 2013 hasn’t brought relative performance back to levels achieved during the previous bull market.