COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    Dividend Aristocrats Look Vulnerable

    December 23, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    The mania for stability and dividend yield have been two of this bull market’s defining characteristics.

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  • COTW

    Broad Market Valuation Check

    December 16, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    It was less than two months ago that broad market valuations--measured by the Leuthold 3000 median Normalized P/E--were still within the wide range we consider to represent fair value (between the 30th and 70th percentiles). Thanks to the rush of post-election euphoria, that's no longer the case, with median P/E shooting up three points in six weeks to 26.1x.

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    DJ Transports Move To New High

    December 09, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    Wednesday's action erased two divergences cited in the latest Green Book, with both the NYSE Advance/Decline Line and the Dow Jones Transports moving to new bull market highs. The latter index had failed to do so for almost two years.

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    Plenty Of New Highs, But Is There One Too Many?

    December 02, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    While a raft of key market measures joined the S&P 500 at its latest cyclical high on November 25th, there’s at least one we’d prefer not to see on that list. Last Friday marked the first time in almost three years that the S&P 500 and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield closed at simultaneous 52-week highs. This has been a rare event since 1981, mainly because the path of bond yields has been relentlessly down over that time.

     

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    Hare Passes Tortoise

    November 23, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    Last week we overlooked a key milestone among the daily parade of new stock market highs: The Stock/Bond Total Return Ratio finally exceeded its cyclical high from the summer of 2007. Since July 13, 2007, the S&P 500 has generated a cumulative total return of +73.5%, just ahead of the U.S. 10-Year  Treasury Bond total return of +70.0%. These work out to annualized returns of around 6.0%.

     

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    Internal Market Strife

    November 17, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    It’s not only the electorate that’s polarized in the wake of last week’s presidential vote: Internal disparities within the stock market over the last several days have been some of the most extreme we’ve ever observed. For example, on Monday, November 14th, NYSE Daily 52-Week New Highs and Lows both exceeded 10% of Issues Traded. There’s no day that’s been even remotely comparable in almost 75 years of NYSE history.

     

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    Financials: "Thrice Blessed"

    November 11, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    The S&P 500 Financials’ four-day, 11% rally has carried the sector to a new bull market high and the best closing level since May 6, 2008. The new high eliminates one of the long-term negative divergences from the Red Flag Indicator discussed periodically in the Green Book. Another longtime “Red Flag,” the Dow Jones 65 Composite, closed yesterday only fractionally below its December 29, 2014, all-time high. This is good action.

     

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    Eye Examination

    November 04, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    It’s a throwaway line to say the current bull market is the “most hated in history,” but consider that this hatred in and of itself has led to probably the most dangerous extremity in the stock market today.

     

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    The Stock Market Is Non-Partisan

    October 27, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    We’ve annoyed a few media outlets by admitting to having no clue as to which of the presidential candidates would be “better” for the stock market.

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    EPS Touching Bottom?

    October 20, 2016 BY Scott Opsal

    Early in the third quarter earnings season, S&P 500 companies are providing a glimmer of hope that the long earnings recession may be ending. 

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