COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    What If You Bought "The" Top?

    March 24, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Given the flood of assets into passive equity mutual funds, it’s a mathematical certainty that some unlucky investor will make his or her first purchase of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust on the exact day of the eventual bull market high.

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  • COTW

    Long-Lagging Utilities Catch Up

    March 17, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    For months on end, the Dow Jones Utilities has been the only bellwether group not to participate in the parade of new bull market highs.

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  • COTW

    Using Energy Stocks To Forecast Oil

    March 10, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The latest Green Book highlighted the unusual divergence between crude oil and the relative performance of the S&P 500 Energy sector. Crude prices had—until this week—been trading near 18-month highs, while the relative strength of Energy stocks had slipped back towards January 2016 lows.

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  • COTW

    The Financial Sector: "Running To Stand Still"

    March 03, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Financial sector is up more than 30% from last summer’s Brexit lows and, as of March, ranks atop our Group Selection (GS) Scoring framework for the fourth consecutive month.

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  • COTW

    Bull Market Continuation Signal?

    February 24, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The stock market looks overbought on virtually every technical measure we can think of, but an overbought condition doesn’t always mean the market is vulnerable. To the contrary, we’ve found that “initial” overbought readings—like the one triggered last week on the S&P 500’s 14-Week Relative Strength Index—are generally followed by above-average gains in the intermediate-term (Chart).

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  • COTW

    Another Take On High Valuations

    February 16, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While stock market valuations are high, they are still considerably below their Technology bubble peak of March 2000. We’ve therefore conceded that there’s still room for a true market melt-up as long as cyclical conditions remain positive.

     

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  • COTW

    Signs Of Improving Earnings & Sales

    February 09, 2017 BY Jun Zhu

    Growth Is Re-emerging: A recurring theme in recent Leuthold Group research is the apparent turn in corporate profits and a general improvement in business results. To monitor corporate sales/earnings trends, we measure the number of companies reporting higher quarterly sales and earnings than a year ago, versus companies reporting lower sales and earnings.

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    Apologizing in Advance for Trump

    February 03, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While Wall Street is extremely well represented in the new administration, we doubt that Wall Street’s performance under Trump will come close to that enjoyed under Obama.

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    Global Configuration Of Bond Yields Supports Continued Bullish Dollar Stance

    January 27, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Contrary opinion theory is a valuable tool to investors, but today there are so many self-described contrarians that we sometimes struggle to identify what’s “consensus” and what’s “contrary.”

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  • COTW

    Why The Treasury Department Should Watch The Tape

    January 20, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    In recent years the Fed has been more forthright than ever about the importance of the wealth effect as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy. But this (or any) policy effect hardly exists in a vacuum, and the Fed would do well to recognize that stock market swings have played an increasingly important role in the country’s fiscal balance.

     

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