COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    Global Configuration Of Bond Yields Supports Continued Bullish Dollar Stance

    January 27, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Contrary opinion theory is a valuable tool to investors, but today there are so many self-described contrarians that we sometimes struggle to identify what’s “consensus” and what’s “contrary.”

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  • COTW

    Why The Treasury Department Should Watch The Tape

    January 20, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    In recent years the Fed has been more forthright than ever about the importance of the wealth effect as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy. But this (or any) policy effect hardly exists in a vacuum, and the Fed would do well to recognize that stock market swings have played an increasingly important role in the country’s fiscal balance.

     

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  • COTW

    Active Vs. Passive Return Drivers

    January 12, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Our July special report “Active vs. Passive: A Three-Club Headwind” studied the recent dominance of passive indexes over actively managed funds.

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  • COTW

    The Year That Could Have Been

    January 06, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    It’s well-known that 2016 was a very difficult year for active equity managers, as if purveyors of passive products were in need of a lifeline. That’s especially disconcerting because the year was one that offered—if nothing else—big potential for outperformance.

     

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  • COTW

    Today's Bull Versus The 1990s

    December 30, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    The advance since March 2009 has just surpassed the bull market of 1990-1998 to become the second longest bull of all time, and it will move into the top spot if it can survive until next March 15th (the “Ides of March”). The current record holder is the 1921-1929 bull, which expired just a few days following its eighth birthday.

     

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  • COTW

    Dividend Aristocrats Look Vulnerable

    December 23, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    The mania for stability and dividend yield have been two of this bull market’s defining characteristics.

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  • COTW

    Broad Market Valuation Check

    December 16, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    It was less than two months ago that broad market valuations--measured by the Leuthold 3000 median Normalized P/E--were still within the wide range we consider to represent fair value (between the 30th and 70th percentiles). Thanks to the rush of post-election euphoria, that's no longer the case, with median P/E shooting up three points in six weeks to 26.1x.

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  • COTW

    DJ Transports Move To New High

    December 09, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    Wednesday's action erased two divergences cited in the latest Green Book, with both the NYSE Advance/Decline Line and the Dow Jones Transports moving to new bull market highs. The latter index had failed to do so for almost two years.

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  • COTW

    Plenty Of New Highs, But Is There One Too Many?

    December 02, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    While a raft of key market measures joined the S&P 500 at its latest cyclical high on November 25th, there’s at least one we’d prefer not to see on that list. Last Friday marked the first time in almost three years that the S&P 500 and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield closed at simultaneous 52-week highs. This has been a rare event since 1981, mainly because the path of bond yields has been relentlessly down over that time.

     

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  • COTW

    Hare Passes Tortoise

    November 23, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    Last week we overlooked a key milestone among the daily parade of new stock market highs: The Stock/Bond Total Return Ratio finally exceeded its cyclical high from the summer of 2007. Since July 13, 2007, the S&P 500 has generated a cumulative total return of +73.5%, just ahead of the U.S. 10-Year  Treasury Bond total return of +70.0%. These work out to annualized returns of around 6.0%.

     

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