COTW

COTW

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    Temporary Power Outage?

    December 29, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    With the northern U.S. stuck in a deep-freeze, there could hardly be a worse time for the nation’s utilities to fail. But conventional chart work suggests that is exactly what’s happened. The Dow Jones Utility Average fell below its 40-week moving average last Friday, dropping the simple four-indicator model, shown in the chart, into third gear after it had spent most of the year with “four on the floor.”

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    Market Thoughts In The "Season Of Excess"

    December 22, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While investors look high and low for signs of excess that might portend the next bear market, they should pause and consider the excesses that have recently gone away.

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    Is The Market Too Strong To Top Out?

    December 14, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    We observed in July that at an age when most bull markets are prepared to see the mortician, this one still seems to need a pediatrician. And five months later, the bull is acting as immature as ever!

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    Yawn? Another Sentiment Warning

    December 08, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The stock market has disregarded any and all caution flags throughout 2017, and the consensus is that it will continue do so through year-end.

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    The "Mo-Mo" Market Probably Isn't Finished

    December 01, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Momentum has had a terrific year relative to all other quant factors, but Wednesday’s action forewarns of the mayhem that will likely accompany the eventual rotation out of Momentum (and Growth) and into Value stocks.

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    It Still Doesn’t Look Like A Top

    November 22, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While there are certainly some performance disparities within the U.S. stock market, there’s no way we can argue (even if we’d like to) that it has become too selective.

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    The Seasonality Of Earnings Season

    November 17, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Years ago, Monty Python’s classic comedy sketch introduced us to the Department of Redundancy Department.

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    Tax Reform Or Not, The Budget Is Already Busted

    November 10, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    In 2010 and 2011, we were sometimes chastised for not paying more attention to exploding federal  deficits, which at the time were running between 8% to 10% of GDP. We argued that a substantial share of these budget shortfalls was cyclical in nature, and would eventually be reversed by an improving economy.

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    Time To Embrace "Equality"?

    November 03, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While this year’s rally has been a broad, “equal opportunity” affair, some of the weakest relative action we’ve observed has—oddly enough—been among equal-weighted stock market indexes. Equal-weighted indexes for Large, Mid, and Small Caps are all trailing their cap-weighted counterparts year-to-date, and the gap for the S&P 500 is now almost 400 basis points after an especially bad October.

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    Two Sector Picks For The Home Stretch

    October 27, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    With the Major Trend Index positive and the market about to enter the seasonally most bullish part of the calendar, we’ll offer both a trendy sector and a contrarian one for allocators looking to cap off an already good year. Specifically, we’d recommend heavy exposure to both the Information Technology and Financial sectors, which rate #3 and #1 in the October Group Selection (GS) framework.

     

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