COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    Should Bond Bears Barbell?

    March 23, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The deterioration in stock market liquidity remains at the forefront of our concerns and is a key reason that the Major Trend Index is hovering just above its bearish threshold of 0.95...

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    Foreign Stocks: What Will Turn The Tide?

    March 15, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    After a brief respite last year, EAFE has reverted to its old form by falling 300 basis points behind the S&P 500 so far in 2018. EAFE’s main transgression might simply be that it represents good relative value in a market that’s been rewarding only momentum...

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    The Ups and Downs of 2018

    March 08, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Ten weeks into 2018, we have already seen three mini-cycles in U.S. equities. A rip-roaring surge in January was followed in early February by one of the shortest corrections in history...

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    What’s Ailing The Staples?

    March 02, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The setback that began in late January qualifies as the sixth intermediate correction of the current bull market, where “intermediate” is defined as an S&P 500 loss ranging between 7%-12%...

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    The Commodity Stock Disconnect

    February 23, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    While watching a forecast go awry is painful, there’s an alternative that we consider to be even worse: the failure to be paid on an accurate forecast. The resulting feeling of helplessness must be similar to that of a corporate director who manages to lose money on inside information.

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    Why Is Discretionary Leading?

    February 16, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    For at least the last year we have argued that late bull market conditions would tend to reward momentum strategies over mean-reverting ones. That’s played out not only during the market’s melt-up phase, but also (to our surprise) during the recent two-week air-pocket, at a time when we would have expected to see at least a temporary setback in the ratio above.

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    Active vs. Passive Return Drivers: Updated Through Year-End 2017

    February 09, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Our ongoing research into the relative performance of Active vs. Passive fund styles is based on the belief that just as market conditions cycle, so does the active-passive return spread..

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    Are Higher Rates Set To Hit The Low Vol Stocks?

    February 02, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Low Volatility theme has been the darling of this bull market, benefiting from years of skepticism surrounding the economic expansion and the related lack of competition from fixed income instruments...

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    A Fond Remembrance Of Y2K… And Great Values

    January 26, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    We’ve participated in this year’s upside market surge, while at the same turning a bit wistful in remembrance of a simpler and saner stock market era—an era when one could buy more than a third of the Leuthold 3000 stock universe for less than 14x earnings. Yes, that’s the comparative period of stock market sanity that existed in late February 2000, just days before the NASDAQ Composite made its historic bubble-era peak.

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    Late In Bull Market, But Not Terminal

    January 19, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The bull market continues to behave like one that’s in a late—but not terminal—phase. After a stumble late last year, the Momentum leaders have already reasserted their dominance, opening up a four percent lead on the Value stocks YTD after crushing them in 2017.

     

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