COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    Is The Market Too Strong To Top Out?

    December 14, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    We observed in July that at an age when most bull markets are prepared to see the mortician, this one still seems to need a pediatrician. And five months later, the bull is acting as immature as ever!

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    Yawn? Another Sentiment Warning

    December 08, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The stock market has disregarded any and all caution flags throughout 2017, and the consensus is that it will continue do so through year-end.

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    The "Mo-Mo" Market Probably Isn't Finished

    December 01, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Momentum has had a terrific year relative to all other quant factors, but Wednesday’s action forewarns of the mayhem that will likely accompany the eventual rotation out of Momentum (and Growth) and into Value stocks.

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    It Still Doesn’t Look Like A Top

    November 22, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While there are certainly some performance disparities within the U.S. stock market, there’s no way we can argue (even if we’d like to) that it has become too selective.

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    The Seasonality Of Earnings Season

    November 17, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Years ago, Monty Python’s classic comedy sketch introduced us to the Department of Redundancy Department.

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    Tax Reform Or Not, The Budget Is Already Busted

    November 10, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    In 2010 and 2011, we were sometimes chastised for not paying more attention to exploding federal  deficits, which at the time were running between 8% to 10% of GDP. We argued that a substantial share of these budget shortfalls was cyclical in nature, and would eventually be reversed by an improving economy.

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    Time To Embrace "Equality"?

    November 03, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While this year’s rally has been a broad, “equal opportunity” affair, some of the weakest relative action we’ve observed has—oddly enough—been among equal-weighted stock market indexes. Equal-weighted indexes for Large, Mid, and Small Caps are all trailing their cap-weighted counterparts year-to-date, and the gap for the S&P 500 is now almost 400 basis points after an especially bad October.

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    Two Sector Picks For The Home Stretch

    October 27, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    With the Major Trend Index positive and the market about to enter the seasonally most bullish part of the calendar, we’ll offer both a trendy sector and a contrarian one for allocators looking to cap off an already good year. Specifically, we’d recommend heavy exposure to both the Information Technology and Financial sectors, which rate #3 and #1 in the October Group Selection (GS) framework.

     

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    The Smart Money Sleeps In

    October 20, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    From a purely technical perspective, the bull market has hardly been lacking for feathers in its cap. Yet it earned another one on Tuesday when the DJIA Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI) broke out to a new bull market high (Chart 1), erasing a “non-confirmation” that had stood since March 1st. This index thereby joins the broad list of market bellwethers—chronicled in the last Green Book—that have participated in the parade of new highs.

     

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    Correlation "Cape"-r

    October 13, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    During a stock market rally we find difficult to comprehend, it somehow seems appropriate to publish a chart we’re almost at a loss to explain. The first chart shows the 90-year history of the trailing one-year (252-day) correlation of daily returns across market sectors. Correlations have been in a free-fall of late, and now appear to have a good shot at undercutting the all-time low established midway through the 2000-2002 bear market.

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