COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    It Still Doesn’t Look Like A Top

    November 22, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While there are certainly some performance disparities within the U.S. stock market, there’s no way we can argue (even if we’d like to) that it has become too selective.

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    The Seasonality Of Earnings Season

    November 17, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Years ago, Monty Python’s classic comedy sketch introduced us to the Department of Redundancy Department.

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    Tax Reform Or Not, The Budget Is Already Busted

    November 10, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    In 2010 and 2011, we were sometimes chastised for not paying more attention to exploding federal  deficits, which at the time were running between 8% to 10% of GDP. We argued that a substantial share of these budget shortfalls was cyclical in nature, and would eventually be reversed by an improving economy.

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    Time To Embrace "Equality"?

    November 03, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While this year’s rally has been a broad, “equal opportunity” affair, some of the weakest relative action we’ve observed has—oddly enough—been among equal-weighted stock market indexes. Equal-weighted indexes for Large, Mid, and Small Caps are all trailing their cap-weighted counterparts year-to-date, and the gap for the S&P 500 is now almost 400 basis points after an especially bad October.

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    Two Sector Picks For The Home Stretch

    October 27, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    With the Major Trend Index positive and the market about to enter the seasonally most bullish part of the calendar, we’ll offer both a trendy sector and a contrarian one for allocators looking to cap off an already good year. Specifically, we’d recommend heavy exposure to both the Information Technology and Financial sectors, which rate #3 and #1 in the October Group Selection (GS) framework.

     

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    The Smart Money Sleeps In

    October 20, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    From a purely technical perspective, the bull market has hardly been lacking for feathers in its cap. Yet it earned another one on Tuesday when the DJIA Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI) broke out to a new bull market high (Chart 1), erasing a “non-confirmation” that had stood since March 1st. This index thereby joins the broad list of market bellwethers—chronicled in the last Green Book—that have participated in the parade of new highs.

     

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    Correlation "Cape"-r

    October 13, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    During a stock market rally we find difficult to comprehend, it somehow seems appropriate to publish a chart we’re almost at a loss to explain. The first chart shows the 90-year history of the trailing one-year (252-day) correlation of daily returns across market sectors. Correlations have been in a free-fall of late, and now appear to have a good shot at undercutting the all-time low established midway through the 2000-2002 bear market.

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    A Tale Of "The Tail That Wags The Dog"

    September 29, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    We believe the continued strength of this seemingly ageless bull market is due in part to the weakening U.S. dollar, which impacts the real economy and financial asset returns alike.

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    A Statistical Take On The Fourth Quarter

    September 22, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    We just completed a simple study for those market bulls who might find themselves temporarily lacking in confidence (assuming such an animal isn’t extinct by now).

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    Stock Market Valuation Check

    September 15, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Major Trend Index has bounced back into positive territory, and we expect an already-expensive U.S. market to make even higher highs later this year and into early 2018. But we are keeping an eye on the Intrinsic Value work to assess the potential losses that might occur when cyclical conditions eventually turn hostile—possibly in later 2018 or in 2019.

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