COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    Bull Market Continuation Signal?

    February 24, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The stock market looks overbought on virtually every technical measure we can think of, but an overbought condition doesn’t always mean the market is vulnerable. To the contrary, we’ve found that “initial” overbought readings—like the one triggered last week on the S&P 500’s 14-Week Relative Strength Index—are generally followed by above-average gains in the intermediate-term (Chart).

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    Another Take On High Valuations

    February 16, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While stock market valuations are high, they are still considerably below their Technology bubble peak of March 2000. We’ve therefore conceded that there’s still room for a true market melt-up as long as cyclical conditions remain positive.

     

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    Signs Of Improving Earnings & Sales

    February 09, 2017 BY Jun Zhu

    Growth Is Re-emerging: A recurring theme in recent Leuthold Group research is the apparent turn in corporate profits and a general improvement in business results. To monitor corporate sales/earnings trends, we measure the number of companies reporting higher quarterly sales and earnings than a year ago, versus companies reporting lower sales and earnings.

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    Apologizing in Advance for Trump

    February 03, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While Wall Street is extremely well represented in the new administration, we doubt that Wall Street’s performance under Trump will come close to that enjoyed under Obama.

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    Global Configuration Of Bond Yields Supports Continued Bullish Dollar Stance

    January 27, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Contrary opinion theory is a valuable tool to investors, but today there are so many self-described contrarians that we sometimes struggle to identify what’s “consensus” and what’s “contrary.”

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    Why The Treasury Department Should Watch The Tape

    January 20, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    In recent years the Fed has been more forthright than ever about the importance of the wealth effect as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy. But this (or any) policy effect hardly exists in a vacuum, and the Fed would do well to recognize that stock market swings have played an increasingly important role in the country’s fiscal balance.

     

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    Active Vs. Passive Return Drivers

    January 12, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Our July special report “Active vs. Passive: A Three-Club Headwind” studied the recent dominance of passive indexes over actively managed funds.

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    The Year That Could Have Been

    January 06, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    It’s well-known that 2016 was a very difficult year for active equity managers, as if purveyors of passive products were in need of a lifeline. That’s especially disconcerting because the year was one that offered—if nothing else—big potential for outperformance.

     

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    Today's Bull Versus The 1990s

    December 30, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    The advance since March 2009 has just surpassed the bull market of 1990-1998 to become the second longest bull of all time, and it will move into the top spot if it can survive until next March 15th (the “Ides of March”). The current record holder is the 1921-1929 bull, which expired just a few days following its eighth birthday.

     

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    Dividend Aristocrats Look Vulnerable

    December 23, 2016 BY Doug Ramsey

    The mania for stability and dividend yield have been two of this bull market’s defining characteristics.

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