COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    The Bear Market No One Discusses

    April 13, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have still not breached the 3.00% level that many believe will stick the proverbial “fork” in the secular bond bull market that began in 1981. That could well in happen in the next few weeks, but we believe it’s important to step away from the daily fray and reflect upon the damage that’s already been done.

    continue reading

  • COTW

    Change In Market Character

    March 29, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Major Trend Index fell into its negative zone last week and we trimmed the already below-average net equity exposure in tactical accounts by a few more points, to a current 41-42%.

    continue reading

  • COTW

    Should Bond Bears Barbell?

    March 23, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The deterioration in stock market liquidity remains at the forefront of our concerns and is a key reason that the Major Trend Index is hovering just above its bearish threshold of 0.95...

    continue reading

  • COTW

    Foreign Stocks: What Will Turn The Tide?

    March 15, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    After a brief respite last year, EAFE has reverted to its old form by falling 300 basis points behind the S&P 500 so far in 2018. EAFE’s main transgression might simply be that it represents good relative value in a market that’s been rewarding only momentum...

    continue reading

  • COTW

    The Ups and Downs of 2018

    March 08, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Ten weeks into 2018, we have already seen three mini-cycles in U.S. equities. A rip-roaring surge in January was followed in early February by one of the shortest corrections in history...

    continue reading

  • COTW

    What’s Ailing The Staples?

    March 02, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The setback that began in late January qualifies as the sixth intermediate correction of the current bull market, where “intermediate” is defined as an S&P 500 loss ranging between 7%-12%...

    continue reading

  • COTW

    The Commodity Stock Disconnect

    February 23, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    While watching a forecast go awry is painful, there’s an alternative that we consider to be even worse: the failure to be paid on an accurate forecast. The resulting feeling of helplessness must be similar to that of a corporate director who manages to lose money on inside information.

    continue reading

  • COTW

    Why Is Discretionary Leading?

    February 16, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    For at least the last year we have argued that late bull market conditions would tend to reward momentum strategies over mean-reverting ones. That’s played out not only during the market’s melt-up phase, but also (to our surprise) during the recent two-week air-pocket, at a time when we would have expected to see at least a temporary setback in the ratio above.

    continue reading

  • COTW

    Active vs. Passive Return Drivers: Updated Through Year-End 2017

    February 09, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Our ongoing research into the relative performance of Active vs. Passive fund styles is based on the belief that just as market conditions cycle, so does the active-passive return spread..

    continue reading

  • COTW

    Are Higher Rates Set To Hit The Low Vol Stocks?

    February 02, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Low Volatility theme has been the darling of this bull market, benefiting from years of skepticism surrounding the economic expansion and the related lack of competition from fixed income instruments...

    continue reading

Pages

Sign-in to your Account