COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    Full Employment And Rising Prices Aren’t Stock-Friendly

    June 15, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Annual Producer Price Inflation rose to 4.0% in May, a key threshold above which the S&P 500 has historically delivered essentially flat returns. But the fact that this reading occurs against a backdrop of full employment is cause for even more concern. Context is key...

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  • COTW

    If You Think This Market’s Fishy, You’re Right

    June 01, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Tomorrow is the Minnesota season-opener for muskies, but the fanatics who chase them are likely disappointed that it comes a few days after an event that’s known to trigger these beasts: the full moon. The screenshot is from our $9.95 “iSolunar” iPhone app, and shows that Saturday merits only a “three fish” day (out of a possible “four fish”)—based on the moon’s fading illumination. 

     

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    Breadth Is Great— Except Where It Matters The Most

    May 25, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Last week’s piece challenged the now popular view that new highs for the Russell 2000 are a decisively bullish factor for the stock market in the near term. To our surprise, we found that market returns during periods of well-defined Small Cap leadership are significantly lower than when Smalls are laggards.

     

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  • COTW

    Is Small Cap Leadership Bullish?

    May 18, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Russell 2000 closed above its January 26th high on Wednesday, and well beforehand bulls had seized upon the secondary stocks’ leadership as evidence that all is right again with both the U.S. economy and stock market...

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  • COTW

    Attention Shoppers: Contrarian Plays In Aisle 3

    May 11, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    The 2017 run that pushed the nine-year bull market to all-time highs made it very difficult to find anything that looked cheap, and few choices that looked average. Even the Tech bubble of 1999 allowed investors to find moderately priced stocks among the mundane old-economy companies...

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    Market Corrections And The Hazards Of Old Age

    May 04, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    In difficult markets, we have become more appreciative of some of life’s small gifts. For example, it’s been quite a while since we’ve heard it argued that this is “the most hated bull market of all time.”

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    Have Stocks Already Priced In “MAGA?”

    April 27, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Athletes aren’t the only ones known to sometimes suffer a “sophomore slump.” Presidents do, too… at least according to the historical verdict of the stock market...

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    After The Tax Cut, Watch Out For This Hike

    April 20, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Analysts are still coming to terms with the impact of the big corporate tax cut, as shown by the dispersion still existing across S&P 500 EPS estimates in 2018. But they should also be watching the line item that’s contributed the most to the breakout in profit margins above historical levels: interest expense...

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  • COTW

    The Bear Market No One Discusses

    April 13, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have still not breached the 3.00% level that many believe will stick the proverbial “fork” in the secular bond bull market that began in 1981. That could well in happen in the next few weeks, but we believe it’s important to step away from the daily fray and reflect upon the damage that’s already been done.

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  • COTW

    Change In Market Character

    March 29, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Major Trend Index fell into its negative zone last week and we trimmed the already below-average net equity exposure in tactical accounts by a few more points, to a current 41-42%.

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