COTW

COTW

  • COTW

    Don’t Call It A Bubble

    April 21, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Thanks to reasonable valuations outside the United States, our work finds global equities only moderately above their long-term valuation norms. 

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    The Bull Will Benefit The Federal Fisc

    April 13, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Federal receipts tend to be a reflection of where the economy and stock market have been rather than where they might be headed.

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    Much Ado About Not Very Much

    March 31, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    In February, NYSE Margin Debt finally edged above its prior record established in April 2015, a certain sign—according to many bears—that stock market speculation has reached a fever pitch.

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    What If You Bought "The" Top?

    March 24, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Given the flood of assets into passive equity mutual funds, it’s a mathematical certainty that some unlucky investor will make his or her first purchase of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust on the exact day of the eventual bull market high.

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    Long-Lagging Utilities Catch Up

    March 17, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    For months on end, the Dow Jones Utilities has been the only bellwether group not to participate in the parade of new bull market highs.

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    Using Energy Stocks To Forecast Oil

    March 10, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The latest Green Book highlighted the unusual divergence between crude oil and the relative performance of the S&P 500 Energy sector. Crude prices had—until this week—been trading near 18-month highs, while the relative strength of Energy stocks had slipped back towards January 2016 lows.

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    The Financial Sector: "Running To Stand Still"

    March 03, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Financial sector is up more than 30% from last summer’s Brexit lows and, as of March, ranks atop our Group Selection (GS) Scoring framework for the fourth consecutive month.

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    Bull Market Continuation Signal?

    February 24, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The stock market looks overbought on virtually every technical measure we can think of, but an overbought condition doesn’t always mean the market is vulnerable. To the contrary, we’ve found that “initial” overbought readings—like the one triggered last week on the S&P 500’s 14-Week Relative Strength Index—are generally followed by above-average gains in the intermediate-term (Chart).

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    Another Take On High Valuations

    February 16, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    While stock market valuations are high, they are still considerably below their Technology bubble peak of March 2000. We’ve therefore conceded that there’s still room for a true market melt-up as long as cyclical conditions remain positive.

     

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    Signs Of Improving Earnings & Sales

    February 09, 2017 BY Jun Zhu

    Growth Is Re-emerging: A recurring theme in recent Leuthold Group research is the apparent turn in corporate profits and a general improvement in business results. To monitor corporate sales/earnings trends, we measure the number of companies reporting higher quarterly sales and earnings than a year ago, versus companies reporting lower sales and earnings.

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