Topping Pattern

Topping Pattern

  • Stock Market

    Tracking The Stock Market Top

    December 08, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey

    While the sequence of index peaks traced out YTD is not exactly a textbook one, the market’s internal diffusion is comparable to that seen at many major tops, including 2000 and 2007.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    The Bear Case: "Before And After"

    September 09, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey
    The Major Trend Index comes down decisively in the “bear market” camp and we have positioned our tactical portfolios with net equity exposure of just 35%.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    August Was No Anomaly

    September 09, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey
    We might be sympathetic to the bulls’ rationalizations if the August decline had materialized out of thin air. But it didn’t. It has been many months (and probably longer) in the making.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    A Page For The Bulls

    July 08, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey

    One could conceivably argue the market is still “cohesive” enough to hold together for awhile longer. June 23rd saw closing bull market highs in the NASDAQ, Mid Caps, Small Caps (both the S&P 600 and Russell 2000), and the critical KBW Bank and NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Indexes.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Leadership: Winning Begets Winning

    July 08, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey

    Many assume that stocks and industries exhibiting high price momentum suffer disproportionately during the eventual bear market. Surprisingly, the high momentum stock portfolio has suffered an average bear market loss that’s about a quarter less than that of the low momentum portfolio.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Another Retrospective On The Bull…

    June 05, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey

    Up front, we need to remind readers that the Major Trend Index is bullish at 1.08, and our tactical funds remain well-exposed to equities with net exposure of 60-61% (versus a range of between 30% minimum up to a maximum of 70%). That being said, we’re focused on the likelihood of a major defensive portfolio move in the near future, which probably comes as no surprise to Green Book readers (...what with us publishing a prepackaged obituary for the bull market just a month ago).

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Bullish, But Still Worried

    March 06, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey

    Our longer-term bear market forecast and a temporarily positive stock market stance aren’t mutually exclusive.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Margin Debt Revisited

    March 06, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey

    Stock market Margin Debt enjoyed a brief phase of notoriety when it eclipsed its 2007 high just over a year ago, then it retreated into obscurity. Now it may finally be telling us something.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Losing Our Voice

    February 06, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey

    In a cyclical bull market as long and strong as the current one, it’s certainly possible the topping process will be proportionally lengthy and deceptive.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Canary In The Coal Mine?

    February 06, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey

    The S&P 500 made a cycle high on December 29th, and in early February mounted another assault on that level. Ignoring valuations, the economy, Europe, etc. (not necessarily our recommendation), the most bullish observations we can make about the stock market are: (1) its peak is still recent; and (2) the S&P 500 had significant company at that peak—including the Transportation stocks, Utilities, Russell 2000, S&P 500 Financials, and even the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline. All in all, this action is broad enough that a final top shouldn’t be imminent.

    continue reading

Pages

Sign-in to your Account