Economic

Economic

  • Stock Market

    A Venerable Monetary Indicator Turned Negative

    July 08, 2015 BY Doug Ramsey

    The smoothed, 26-week rate-of-change in the DJ Corporate Bond Index, a reliable indicator of monetary conditions over many different market and economic cycles, turned negative in mid-June.

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  • Stock Market

    Stocks And The Dismal Science

    December 06, 2013 BY Doug Ramsey

    Has recent Fed experimentation compromised the stock market’s “social function” as an economic forecasting tool?

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  • Stock Market

    Worse Than It Looks… And Not Over

    October 05, 2011 BY Doug Ramsey

    Most costly market decoy in the last six weeks has been unusual (relative) strength of the Dow and S&P 500 indexes. Resilience in blue chips is characteristic of the early and middle phases of a bear market, but recent blue chip performance has been so stellar (again, in a relative sense) that most investors curled up comfortably in the “correction” camp…while small caps, cyclicals and virtually all foreign markets were screaming “BEAR!”

     

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  • Stock Market

    Keep An Eye On The LEI – Leading Indicators Have Topped, But Have Yet To Roll Over

    June 05, 2007 BY Patrick Magnusson

    The Index of Leading Economic Indicators has a proven track record of indicating when a recession may be near. Although this index has been trending sideways for quite some time, it has not yet rolled over.

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  • Bonds

    Three Distinct Economic Periods

    January 07, 1998 BY Jim Floyd and Steve Leuthold

    Yield curve typically inverted about 62% of the time.

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  • Stock Market

    View From The North Country

    February 04, 1995 BY Steve Leuthold

    Leuthold may have another favorite economist. Paul Krugman at Stanford was recently recognized as the best American economist under the age of forty.

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  • Stock Market

    View from the North Country

    October 06, 1982 BY Steve Leuthold

    A new nationally distributed newspaper has been born, USA Today. This big gamble might just pay off for Gannett. It is refreshing indeed to see a corporation make a big bet on a high-risk long-term investment, especially in this age of corporate timidity and financial mechanics. Also, Irving Kristol’s remarks at the Western Pension Conference.

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  • Stock Market

    The Art of Politics and Economics

    October 06, 1982 BY Steve Leuthold

    Reagan’s change of economic course, leaving the hard-core supply-siders behind, was constructive, and from our standpoint, expected. Predictions for the next two years include significant social security reform, implementation of a somewhat watered down, but still very meaningful flat tax. Federal deficits in 1983 and 1984 will probably turn out to be less than now expected. And in November 1982, the Republicans will lose some seats, but the Old Cowboy will still be able to get his way with Congress when it is important.

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  • Stock Market

    View from the North Country

    January 06, 1982 BY Steve Leuthold

    Did you see Mike Blumenthal’s article, “What Ronald Reagan can learn from Jimmy Carter”? If not, read this brief synopsis. Advises RR to adjust economic program quickly and decisively to new conditions. Don’t hang tough, then retreat step by step. Changing course is not politically wrong.

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