Is a new secular bull market underway? New highs in essentially all U.S. undermine the argument from the shrinking pool of secular bears. But new converts to the bull thesis should be concerned about the valuation levels already reached.
If a bear market is imminent, it will unfold with less “internal” forewarning than any cyclical decline since the late 1930s.
Steve Leuthold lays out both the bullish and bearish stock market cases.
Weight of the evidence discipline remains neutral this month. Long T-bond six and twelve month worst case still seen only as 8.50% level.
On December 21, the Major Trend Index moved into "neutral" territory.