Bonds

Bonds

  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    May 01, 1987 BY Steve Leuthold

    April couldn’t have been much crueler. Even with the rally from near panic lows, long T-bonds lost 6-7 points for the month, as did long municipals. Corporates held up a little better, dropping only three or four points.

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  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    April 01, 1987 BY Steve Leuthold

    As we enter April, our view of the bond market is increasingly cautious. Very short-term, a snap back is expected after the rocky action in recent sessions, but then what? This issue we are pulling in our horns, reducing long bond exposure.

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  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    March 01, 1987 BY Steve Leuthold

    The bond market surprised a lot of the players in February. When the T-bond futures broke 98 around mid-month, a number of traders thought it was the beginning of a significant decline. But, as you may recall from last month, this publication did not feel such a breakdown would be significant.

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  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    February 01, 1987 BY Steve Leuthold

    No, we do not expect to see inflation over 3% by the end of 1987 or even in 1988. Actually, deflation seems more probable. But from the bond and stock market investors’ standpoint in coming months, inflation perceptions are expected to become more important than reality.

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  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    January 07, 1987 BY Steve Leuthold

    The bond market traded in a narrow range in December, but did show some spark in the first days of the new year. For most of December, it looked like the bond players took an extended vacation.

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  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    December 01, 1986 BY Steve Leuthold

    Having been a super bull on the bond market since 1981, this publication has turned more cautious. A number of readers have asked for details and elaboration. Today we still view the bond market trend as up, but think a sharp decline might occur sometime in 1987, with T-bond yields rising by as much as 300 basis points.

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  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    November 04, 1986 BY Steve Leuthold

    Even considering these deficit related problems, we have to remain cyclically bullish on T-bonds for the next few months. The bond market just has too much going for it. Most of our inflation work remains cool, but this month we present two momentum measures for the PPI and CPI that may appear ominous to some.

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  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    October 03, 1986 BY Steve Leuthold

    The bond market worked lower in the first half of September but rallied later in the month, cutting losses for the month in half. Short rates were little changed during September.

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  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    September 01, 1986 BY Steve Leuthold

    Bonds moved higher in August but did not make new highs. However, it is only a matter of time. Most of our inflation work is still cool, but this month we present one of our tools that is mildly disturbing. The commodity spot price diffusion index seems to be on the rise, although not yet in negative territory.

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  • Bonds

    Bond Market Summary

    August 03, 1986 BY Steve Leuthold

    Bonds held their own in July but did not make new highs. However, it is only a matter of time. We don’t expect much in August but look for a move below 7% for T-bonds by year end.

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