• Inflation Watch

    Inflation-Weaker Sooner Than Expected

    April 19, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    The latest CPI is weaker and the softness was sooner than we expected.  More alarming is the recent broad-based deterioration in economic data.  Lower inflation expectations have flattened the yield curve recently, which hurt Financial stocks. We believe inflation has likely peaked for the time being and patience is the right approach for the reflation trade at this point.

     

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Major Trend

    MTI Stable; Inflation Pressures Down From Recent Peak

    April 18, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Read this week's Major Trend Index.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Spring Forward, Fall Back?

    April 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The S&P 500 has gained about 5% on the year, respectable but hardly consistent with the “melt up” scenario we thought might occur.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Stock Market Observations

    April 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Second-half results showed the U.S. emerging from the 2015-2016 profit recession, and our early read is that the first quarter should show more of the same.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Bonds

    Anatomy Of A Tightening Cycle

    April 07, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    The tapering of QE, clearly a tightening move, complicates the definition of the current tightening cycle.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Which EPS Are We Talking About?

    April 07, 2017 BY Jun Zhu

    The distinction between reported GAAP earnings and adjusted operating earnings has long been a source of debate among fundamental investors, and the choice of “E” will materially impact each investor’s view of the market’s P/E ratio.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Quant

    In Uncertain World, Investors Reward Growth

    April 07, 2017 BY Greg Swenson

    With the “Trump Trade” in question, investors have been flocking to companies delivering tangible results.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Two Charts For Bond Bulls

    April 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    With U.S. real GDP growing about 2% year-over-year and the rest of the Developed world growing even slower, it’s hard to imagine that economic momentum may be peaking.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Inflation Watch

    A Dovish Hike--Positive For Inflation

    March 16, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    The dovish rate hike is a positive for inflation and credit. A hawkish message right now would have been quite detrimental and self-defeating in terms of realizing two more hikes later this year. We believe achieving sustained 2-3% inflation could be harder than most people expect going forward. Overall, we are encouraged by the dovish hike but we think the real test for inflation is when the base effect starts to wane.

     

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    What A Strong “Tape” Does (And Doesn’t) Mean

    March 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Our disciplines remain bullish, but we periodically wonder whether we’re being too cavalier in keeping our tactical portfolios “almost” fully-invested (at 65% equities) in the face of valuations that are higher than those seen in all but perhaps 24 months of stock market history.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    What’s Wrong With Energy Stocks?

    March 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    One of our disappointments with the Group Selection (GS) Scores in 2016 was their failure to latch on to the rebound in Energy groups.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Bonds

    Three Steps And No Stumble

    March 07, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    Given the high likelihood of a March rate hike, we can’t help but wonder if the old adage of “three steps and a stumble” really holds.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Equity Strategies

    Financials Remain Atop Sector Rankings

    March 07, 2017 BY Kristen Perleberg

    Our Financials Sector Ranking has been strengthening since August—well before the Trump Bump. The addition of Regional Banks to our SI Portfolio boosts our Financials exposure to an overweight 26% versus the S&P 500’s 15% weight. Reinsurance and Developed Diversified Banks are also among the Attractively-rated options for diversification within the sector.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Quant

    February Factor Performance

    March 07, 2017 BY Greg Swenson

    Low Volatility was in favor once again during February after struggling the previous month. Starting in September, the factor has continuously reversed the previous month’s performance.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Of Special Interest

    Grappling With A Strong U.S. Dollar Outlook

    March 06, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Profitable investing overseas requires not one, but two, successful decisions: 1) select an outperforming asset class; and, 2) be in a currency that provides a favorable foreign exchange impact.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Inflation Watch

    Inflation-All About That Base

    February 15, 2017 BY Chun Wang

    CPI numbers were strong and better than expected. A big part of the recent upturn in inflation has to do with the much lower base from a year ago. We are seeing upside inflation surprises on a global basis but wage inflation is still disappointing. We are encouraged by the general uptrend in inflation data but we think the real test comes after the positive base effect subsides.

     

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Stock Market Observations

    February 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks, yet the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category is almost the sole carrier of the bullish torch.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Decline Of The Aristocracy

    February 07, 2017 BY Doug Ramsey

    Veteran market analyst Bob Farrell reminds investors that when parabolic uptrends eventually stop, the next move is never sideways. We don’t know that the Dividend Aristocrats and other bond-like stocks traced out a true parabola into last summer’s peaks, but the ugly aftermath suggests they probably did.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    Active Versus Passive Return Drivers: A Year-End Update

    February 07, 2017 BY Scott Opsal

    Herein we provide a year-end update on the factors we determined were important to the active/passive relationship. We found that the market environment and the success of active managers changed significantly in late 2016.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

  • Stock Market

    How Much Cash Is Stashed Overseas?

    February 07, 2017 BY Jun Zhu

    Tallying the overseas cash pile, predicting how much may be repatriated, and the potential impact on stock performance are challenging undertakings, which require more art than science.

    The full content of this page is available to research clients only.

    continue reading

Sign-in to your Account