• Cycles And Taxes And GICS, Oh My!

    June 07, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Analyzing quarterly financial results and developing insights about upcoming periods is always difficult, but the first quarter of 2018 was unusually complicated.

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  • Major Trend

    MTI: Market Behavior Remains Disjointed

    June 19, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Performance discontinuities across some of the major indexes are striking. For example, while the NASDAQ Composite is up 12% YTD, the NYSE Composite is down 1%, despite those strong A/D readings for the latter index. Today’s action leaves a similar gap between the Russell 2000 (up 10% YTD) and the DJIA (unchanged).

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  • Defensiveness Has Left The Building!

    June 18, 2018 BY James Paulsen

    Perhaps the stock market is taking its cue from the NBA back-to-back champion, Golden State Warriors (and winners of three of the last four titles). They employ an aggressive and entertaining “Offense-First” style of play driven by multiple all-stars firing “threes” with rapid abandonment from distances normally reserved for long touchdown passes!

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  • COTW

    Full Employment And Rising Prices Aren’t Stock-Friendly

    June 15, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Annual Producer Price Inflation rose to 4.0% in May, a key threshold above which the S&P 500 has historically delivered essentially flat returns. But the fact that this reading occurs against a backdrop of full employment is cause for even more concern. Context is key...

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  • Inflation Watch

    Inflation—No Surprises Here

    June 12, 2018 BY Phil Segner

    Headline and Core CPI figures hit estimates right on the nose in May, continuing the trend of modest but not outrageous price increases. Energy prices have boosted headline CPI while core CPI continues to be driven by services. With both of the Fed’s mandates pretty much accomplished, appreciate this rare window of time.

     

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  • A Growth Alert?

    June 08, 2018 BY James Paulsen

    This year started with strong expectations for economic growth. A substantial tax cut and evidence the global recovery had finally synchronized significantly raised expectations for both the pace of economic growth and corporate earnings results.. 

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  • Stock Market

    Is The Bull Just Napping?

    June 07, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Old age has certainly put no limitations on the bull’s exploits, so we should be cautious in reading too much into its meandering recovery path. However, it’s possible that action since the February low is not a recovery process but rather a countertrend bounce within a larger downtrend.

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  • Major Trend

    MTI Now Decisively Negative

    June 07, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Read this week's Major Trend Index.

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  • Stock Market

    Analysts, Summon Your Inner-Angler!

    June 07, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    Quantitative investment firms are increasingly touting the cross-disciplinary backgrounds of their research staffs, with prior high-level experience in areas such as medical research and engineering not uncommon.

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  • Bonds

    All Crowded Trades Are Vulnerable—Even The Yield-Curve Flattener

    June 07, 2018 BY Chun Wang

    Bond market volatility picked up quite a bit in May but the higher-low/higher-high pattern in the 10-year yield is still intact, indicating the primary uptrend has not reversed.

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  • Quant

    Narrow Momentum Performance Hard To Capture

    June 07, 2018 BY Greg Swenson

    While Momentum has worked very well during the last year, the best performance has been concentrated among the most expensive securities within the high Momentum group.

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  • Equity Strategies

    Transports Gain Momentum Amidst Struggling Industrials Sector; Railroads Purchased

    June 07, 2018 BY Kristen Perleberg

    Despite Industrials’ underperformance versus the broad equity market, the sector’s Transportation subset has been on the rise recently. In the latest round of our Group Selection (GS) Scores, four of the five Transportation groups rank Attractive, and the fifth one is rated High Neutral.

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  • Major Trend

    MTI: Sentiment Measures Decline

    June 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    A sharp loss in the Attitudinal category reflects declines in all major groupings of sentiment measures, ranging from investor opinion surveys, to fund flows, to option trading activity.

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  • Special Reports

    Value Style’s 100-Year Flood

    May 23, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Value is the philosophical cornerstone of many legendary portfolio managers and is widely recognized as one of the most robust quantitative investment factors. Yet, despite its compelling conceptual merits and long-term record of superior returns, recent years’ underperformance of Value has lasted long enough to weigh on even 10-year performance records. 

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  • COTW

    Is Small Cap Leadership Bullish?

    May 18, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    The Russell 2000 closed above its January 26th high on Wednesday, and well beforehand bulls had seized upon the secondary stocks’ leadership as evidence that all is right again with both the U.S. economy and stock market...

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  • Stock Market

    The Market Told You So

    May 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    First quarter profits have been terrific, and this quarter’s will be too. Enjoy them, but remember that the market “paid” you for them many months ago. Don’t submit another invoice…

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  • Stock Market

    The “Correction” Clock Is Ticking

    May 05, 2018 BY Doug Ramsey

    2018’s S&P 500 setback qualifies as an “intermediate” correction. Historically, the duration of intermediate corrections is brief, and recovery time to move back above prior highs has also been brief. This year’s retracement route is already among the most meandering of all recovery paths since 1950.

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  • Bonds

    Rates & Credit At A Major Crossroads—A Few Things To Watch

    May 05, 2018 BY Chun Wang

     April saw a valiant attempt by the U.S. 10-year yield to crack the upper band of the multi-decade downtrend channel (around 3.0%-3.05%).

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  • Stock Market

    EM Country Rotation Based On A Stock Factor Model

    May 05, 2018 BY Jun Zhu

    Back testing shows stock-level factor alpha can be captured at the country level. With the rapid growth of single-country ETFs, this may prove an efficient, practical alternative to individual stock selection.

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  • Quant

    Has The Makeup Of Momentum Changed?

    May 05, 2018 BY Greg Swenson

    The makeup of Momentum has stayed surprisingly steady through the volatility in 2018, with Info Tech and Health Care maintaining overexposure. Energy is sneaking in, though, and could be poised to take a much larger share.

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  • Of Special Interest

    The Yin And Yang Of Utilities

    May 04, 2018 BY Scott Opsal

    Are Utilities defensives, or are they interest rate plays, or both? We believe the driving influence fluctuates based on market conditions, specifically fear, and the desire for protection in down markets.

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